Uncertainty and Inter-jurisdictional High-speed Rail Planning: Insights from Portugal and the United Kingdom

39 40 Within public policy and academic discourses, high-speed rail (HSR) is presented as a way of 41 achieving “smarter” or more sustainable forms of growth. Realizing this promise requires 42 coordinated policy efforts across levels of government and at different moments along a project’s 43 timeline. The research presented here makes use of a systems perspective to study the barriers to44 and opportunities of inter-jurisdictional HSR planning. The paper draws on interview material 45 with officials involved in the Portuguese and United Kingdom HSR planning processes. 46 Uncertainty is found to be of significant relevance to the manner in which national and 47 local or regional governments interact. Those interactions in turn affect the realized physical 48 reality of the HSR network and its integration into existing land use and transport systems. The 49 paper examines two sources of uncertainty—uncertainty of outcomes and the uncertainty of a 50 multi-actor inter-jurisdictional system of control. 51 Case studies are used to explore how existing processes and evaluations mechanisms 52 affect the level to which local knowledge and initiatives are incorporated into iterative HSR 53 system design. The research additionally reveals how initial conditions can be important 54 determinants of HSR success by shaping a system’s ability to adapt to realizations of currently 55 uncertain futures. 56 The paper concludes by offering two approaches to building a HSR implementation 57 process that successfully incorporates HSR-supportive local and regional policies. The 58 approaches combine formal inter-jurisdictional planning commitments with informal coalition 59 building, to together enhance HSR’s ability to achieve its full potential. 60